Most people have been writing about the last twelve months as an overview of what has happened, I am more interested in what could happen in 2106.
What lessons have we learned about 2015 and the increase in terrorism attacks.
The type of attacks that have happened seem to suggest the marauding type has become popular mostly because of the coverage they attract but perhaps because of the logistics involved. With Shengen [although not much free movement in Europe at the moment as Shengen is broken] entering Europe and travelling round the 26 countries has not posed much of a problem with groups of people shipping in arms and attracting newspaper offices, football groups, bars, restaurants and music venues has not been complicated either.
If the security forces start to work on disrupting these types of events the protagonists will presumably move on to plan B.
What about the political side of events. What are the fundamental problems in the region? Civil war in Syria, bad governance in Iraq, no final strategy for Libya.
There could be a deal in connection with Libya, there are talks in Yemen that could ease the situation, there are planned, also Syria talks next month in January, what can be achieved from these, a little at a time and goals could succeed. If not ISIS has the ability to move into Yemen and Libya unopposed.
What can be achieved from these events? The reactive approach must be left in the past and a more proactive approach must be taken. Apart from peace being the overriding goal, are there individual goals that can be achieved in each country that will appease all?