Monday, 9 December 2019

GE 2019 Final Week

The general election for 2019 is this Thursday 12th December.

Parties involved and current poll standings:-
43% Conservative
33% Labour
13% Lib Dems
 4% Plaid Cymru
 4% SNP
 3% Brexit
 3% Green

Election analysts have long projected the number of seats for each party by assuming a “uniform national swing”. This is calculated by taking the difference between each party’s share in current national polls and the results at the last election. This figure is then added to the party’s results in each constituency in the previous election. However these are forecasts and not results.

Surprisingly these figures have not changed much over the last twelve months, and I wonder if the usual theme of elections has been lost this time round, such as health, education and defence because #Brexit has such a strong hold on everyone, mainly because it didn't happen on the 29th, March the 22nd April or 31st October.

The 2017 actual result was:-
42% Conservative
40% Labour
 7% Lib Dems
 3% SNP
 1% Green
 1% UKIP
 3% Others

What will it look like next Friday morning?

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