Monday, 18 November 2019

GE 2019 Who is leading?

One of the threats to a Conservative majority is the Brexit party standing in the other seats after saying they would not stand in the 317 seats held by the 2017 conservative. There is a chance that the Brexit party will take seats from the Lib Dems where there is a strong leave base, as the Lib Dems are fully remain.

There are no threats to the Labour majority as it will not happen, not while Jeremy Corbyn is leader, however, just changing the leader is not enough for any party just to sweep the board. The Labour party are not working for a majority they are working specifically to stop the Conservative majority.

In 2015 the Brexit party took one seat from Labour and three seats from the Conservatives. What Nigel Farage would like is to have enough seats to be a bridge between all parties like the DUP are now. This is still unrealistic but there is a real chance that the Brexit party can damage all the others which will create another hung parliament.

One of the crucial statistics currently being shown is that 60% of leavers in Labour seats will vote conservative and 40% of leavers in Labour seats will vote Labour. this if true will be a huge help to the Conservative campaign.

Who is going to grab the 'new' vote? This time round there are those who could not vote in the 2016 referendum or the 2017 election because of age, they have been witnesses to the Brexit scandal, how will their vote affect the overall picture, are they keen enough or are they more interested in the environment and climate change?

More questions than answers but there is plenty of time to get them over the next four weeks, which are going to be very difficult for pollsters to predict.

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