Today investors fret over elections, referendums, a slowdown in China, euro zone debt… the list is endless. Meanwhile journalists are always full of doom and gloom – it sells more papers.
During the week Sir Mervyn King [Fellow of the British Academy] former Governor of the Bank of England spelled out why we should be more confident in Brexit. We could do with a few more stalwarts to promote the same message after the remainers message of doom & gloom never materialised.
2016 has been the year of the improbable. According to Ladbrokes, a £1 bet on Leicester winning the Premier League, the UK voting to leave the EU and Donald Trump becoming US president could have returned over £4.5m.
This year feels like a crescendo of events that started with the 2008 financial crisis. Since it bottomed in 2009 the market has climbed what is often termed a ‘wall of worry’. Commentators have continually expected markets to fall, but instead they have climbed higher and higher. However, fear of falling markets has caused many investors to miss out on this bull market. Of course the smart money has been there.
With most investors in pessimistic mode, there is plenty of cash on the sidelines waiting for an opportunity to enter the market. This means that should markets fall by, say, five or ten percent, the dip could be heavily bought. We saw this with the Brexit referendum, where the market’s fall was quickly reversed.
Low interest rates add to the favourable backdrop for equities. In this environment it’s easy to see the attraction of equity income funds, many of which yield from 3 to 5% at present – albeit that unlike the security of cash, your capital will fluctuate, so you could get back less than you invest.
2017 should be a better year especially if the government coughs up a few bob for social services.
Thursday, 29 December 2016
Monday, 12 December 2016
Health and Social Care
There is a lot of talk about NHS funding and services and there is a lot of talk about social care funding or lack of funding and services but rarely do I see the two linked and yet I consider Health and Social Care to have a symbiance with one another.
At the moment, health and social care – the help given mainly to old or disabled patients to help them continue to live at home rather than in hospital or nursing homes – are different systems in England. NHS medical treatment and domiciliary support, which is provided mainly by local councils, are usually not joined-up.
Adult social care has enjoyed an average annual real-terms growth of 5.1 per cent since 1994 but much of this has been absorbed by demographic pressures. Over the past five years spending on services for people with learning disabilities has risen by 20 per cent and for those with physical disabilities by nearly 14 per cent. But spending for older people has increased by less than 3 per cent and has not kept pace with demographic change, according to the Kings Fund.
Mounting demands on care budgets has led the government to identify additional resources in the Spending Review and to commission an independent review to recommend a more sustainable way of funding care for the future. But a tough spending settlement for local government suggests that a funding gap of at least £1.2 billion could open up by 2017 unless all councils can achieve unprecedented efficiency savings. What's more the last autumn statement made it very clear that there was no extra spending for social care in England.
The consequences are that even fewer people will receive the care and support they need. This will have knock-on effects for people needing NHS care as there will be more emergency admissions to hospital, delayed discharges and longer waits for treatment. Currently there is a battle between the hospitals [A&E] and social care. Someone is taking into hospital and treated medically, they are improved and the hospital wants their bed back, but unless the person can leave under their own steam or are moved by social services, bed-blocking can ensue and this is causing friction.
Social care is not simply an adjunct to the smooth running of the NHS. It is possible that under-investment in vital health services, such as continence and community nursing, may generate additional demand for social care support. A better understanding of the reciprocal relationship between spending in health and social care is essential to ensure that they operate as a whole system of care. NHS Health and Social Care have a symbiance with one another and until this is accepted little progress can be made.
At the moment, health and social care – the help given mainly to old or disabled patients to help them continue to live at home rather than in hospital or nursing homes – are different systems in England. NHS medical treatment and domiciliary support, which is provided mainly by local councils, are usually not joined-up.
Adult social care has enjoyed an average annual real-terms growth of 5.1 per cent since 1994 but much of this has been absorbed by demographic pressures. Over the past five years spending on services for people with learning disabilities has risen by 20 per cent and for those with physical disabilities by nearly 14 per cent. But spending for older people has increased by less than 3 per cent and has not kept pace with demographic change, according to the Kings Fund.
Mounting demands on care budgets has led the government to identify additional resources in the Spending Review and to commission an independent review to recommend a more sustainable way of funding care for the future. But a tough spending settlement for local government suggests that a funding gap of at least £1.2 billion could open up by 2017 unless all councils can achieve unprecedented efficiency savings. What's more the last autumn statement made it very clear that there was no extra spending for social care in England.
The consequences are that even fewer people will receive the care and support they need. This will have knock-on effects for people needing NHS care as there will be more emergency admissions to hospital, delayed discharges and longer waits for treatment. Currently there is a battle between the hospitals [A&E] and social care. Someone is taking into hospital and treated medically, they are improved and the hospital wants their bed back, but unless the person can leave under their own steam or are moved by social services, bed-blocking can ensue and this is causing friction.
Social care is not simply an adjunct to the smooth running of the NHS. It is possible that under-investment in vital health services, such as continence and community nursing, may generate additional demand for social care support. A better understanding of the reciprocal relationship between spending in health and social care is essential to ensure that they operate as a whole system of care. NHS Health and Social Care have a symbiance with one another and until this is accepted little progress can be made.
Friday, 25 November 2016
The Left Wing
How do losing political movements react to defeat?
They comfort themselves with the notion that the electorate did not properly appreciate their achievements in office, failed to understand what was at stake. Consciously rejecting virtue and reason, through base motives of greed or prejudice they have knowingly chosen the dark side.
This position found a home in Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party, which now seems to regard winning elections as at best a secondary concern, and colours the tone of much post-referendum commentary – the suggestion being that many Brexit supporters came to their view through something worse than ignorance.
Disapproval of the voters also seems to be rife among anti-Trump elements. You can see it in the protests, and in the calls for moderate Republicans not to “normalise” the president-elect by taking jobs in his administration.
American voters were crying out for change, yet the Democrats offered its antithesis: the Washington establishment incarnate. People in states and counties the Democrats had come to take for granted worried about their jobs, their futures, prospect for their children, the ballooning cost of healthcare, the state of their roads and bridges, immigration, terrorism, the effect of trade deals on their industries, and America’s place in the world – and the Democratic candidate responded: did you hear what Donald Trump said about an ex-Miss Universe?
But other things that were closer to home mattered more to people than Trump’s flaws, and he was taking about them.
They comfort themselves with the notion that the electorate did not properly appreciate their achievements in office, failed to understand what was at stake. Consciously rejecting virtue and reason, through base motives of greed or prejudice they have knowingly chosen the dark side.
This position found a home in Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party, which now seems to regard winning elections as at best a secondary concern, and colours the tone of much post-referendum commentary – the suggestion being that many Brexit supporters came to their view through something worse than ignorance.
Disapproval of the voters also seems to be rife among anti-Trump elements. You can see it in the protests, and in the calls for moderate Republicans not to “normalise” the president-elect by taking jobs in his administration.
American voters were crying out for change, yet the Democrats offered its antithesis: the Washington establishment incarnate. People in states and counties the Democrats had come to take for granted worried about their jobs, their futures, prospect for their children, the ballooning cost of healthcare, the state of their roads and bridges, immigration, terrorism, the effect of trade deals on their industries, and America’s place in the world – and the Democratic candidate responded: did you hear what Donald Trump said about an ex-Miss Universe?
But other things that were closer to home mattered more to people than Trump’s flaws, and he was taking about them.
Wednesday, 23 November 2016
Letter from Aleppo
East Aleppo, the heart of Syria’s peaceful revolution, is besieged on all sides and facing unprecedented levels of attacks from the sky as the Syrian regime and Russia moves to ‘exterminate’ all those that remain.
In the last five days all hospitals, including the last children’s hospital, have been bombed out of operation. All White Helmets centres have been destroyed. East Aleppo’s trapped 275,000 residents are living in terror as thousands of missiles, barrel bombs, and mortars rain down on them.
Despite the brutality, the medics, rescue workers, parents, and entire communities refuse to give up. They have rebuilt hospitals time and time again, saved families from under the rubble of non-stop air strikes, and opened schools and libraries underground.
Aleppo, one of the birthplaces of civilisation, has been failed utterly by the leaders of the 'civilised world' who stand by idly and watch this massacre unfold.
[written by a resident]
Daily Dispatch: “No words can describe what we experience and suffer everyday”
Aoum Obaidah, is a mother of three and teacher at an orphanage in Aleppo city. The orphanage looks after 47 children. She writes to you about what life is like for the 90,000 children living under siege in Aleppo.
“I wish the children in Aleppo could breath clean air, free of the smell of gunpowder, chemicals or even death.
The children of Aleppo don't go to school anymore, everything has been destroyed, and even if a school still exists, it’s too dangerous for children to attend.
The children of Aleppo will die eventually, either from the cold, lack of food or medicine. They will die because they don’t have milk or even a piece of bread.
Assad and the Russian's bombs do not differentiate between a stone or a human. I can’t protect my children from the bombs. If a day passes without losing one of them, it is a miracle to me.
When you see a hungry child walking barefoot, then you know he is from Aleppo. When you see a child crying for his mother or father, lost under the rubble, then you know he is living under siege in Aleppo. When you see a child bleeding to death, tears filling his or her eyes, then you know it is a child from Aleppo.
My message to all mothers in the world is, learn and teach others how to keep your children safe, not hungry.
And whatever happens, never let them go. Always hold them because you never know when you might lose them."
In the last five days all hospitals, including the last children’s hospital, have been bombed out of operation. All White Helmets centres have been destroyed. East Aleppo’s trapped 275,000 residents are living in terror as thousands of missiles, barrel bombs, and mortars rain down on them.
Despite the brutality, the medics, rescue workers, parents, and entire communities refuse to give up. They have rebuilt hospitals time and time again, saved families from under the rubble of non-stop air strikes, and opened schools and libraries underground.
Aleppo, one of the birthplaces of civilisation, has been failed utterly by the leaders of the 'civilised world' who stand by idly and watch this massacre unfold.
[written by a resident]
Daily Dispatch: “No words can describe what we experience and suffer everyday”
Aoum Obaidah, is a mother of three and teacher at an orphanage in Aleppo city. The orphanage looks after 47 children. She writes to you about what life is like for the 90,000 children living under siege in Aleppo.
“I wish the children in Aleppo could breath clean air, free of the smell of gunpowder, chemicals or even death.
The children of Aleppo don't go to school anymore, everything has been destroyed, and even if a school still exists, it’s too dangerous for children to attend.
The children of Aleppo will die eventually, either from the cold, lack of food or medicine. They will die because they don’t have milk or even a piece of bread.
Assad and the Russian's bombs do not differentiate between a stone or a human. I can’t protect my children from the bombs. If a day passes without losing one of them, it is a miracle to me.
When you see a hungry child walking barefoot, then you know he is from Aleppo. When you see a child crying for his mother or father, lost under the rubble, then you know he is living under siege in Aleppo. When you see a child bleeding to death, tears filling his or her eyes, then you know it is a child from Aleppo.
My message to all mothers in the world is, learn and teach others how to keep your children safe, not hungry.
And whatever happens, never let them go. Always hold them because you never know when you might lose them."
Monday, 21 November 2016
JAM
[just about managing]
The new in phrase JAM coined by social media and the need for shorter sentences might be fun, but it does represent about 10 million people fall into this group.
What could this weeks autumn statement say to them?
Since her [Teresa May] statement outside 10 Downing street last June, is it possible for the government to help these people specifically?
Which areas could she help?
Childcare
Social Care
Welfare
The only problem I can see with this is, the people who are going to pay for this are the recipients!
Whether or not you regard yourself as a member of this group rather depends on your expectations in life. There are rich folk who will complain that they are “just about managing” to afford a holiday on a palm-fringed island because of the cost of paying the school fees.
In the absence of a clearer direction, the hard Brexiters have been making nearly all of the running in the Tory party. This is making business increasingly nervous that Britain could crash out of the EU without a deal on trade that they can live with.
The new in phrase JAM coined by social media and the need for shorter sentences might be fun, but it does represent about 10 million people fall into this group.
What could this weeks autumn statement say to them?
Since her [Teresa May] statement outside 10 Downing street last June, is it possible for the government to help these people specifically?
Which areas could she help?
Childcare
Social Care
Welfare
The only problem I can see with this is, the people who are going to pay for this are the recipients!
Whether or not you regard yourself as a member of this group rather depends on your expectations in life. There are rich folk who will complain that they are “just about managing” to afford a holiday on a palm-fringed island because of the cost of paying the school fees.
In the absence of a clearer direction, the hard Brexiters have been making nearly all of the running in the Tory party. This is making business increasingly nervous that Britain could crash out of the EU without a deal on trade that they can live with.
Friday, 18 November 2016
Child Abuse Inquiry
Aileen McColgan, who was leading the inquiry’s investigation into abuse in the Anglican and Catholic churches, quit over concerns about the inquiry’s leadership, which means there will be a fourth chair. If this isn't a scandal, then what is?
Eight members of the legal team have left in the two years that the inquiry has been running and now serious concerns have been raised over the leadership and transparency and as yet they are still to start the actual work of the inquiry.
Presently MPs are saying that this is a really important inquiry into historical child abuse and it has had a very difficult two-year history so far. What we want is for it to get back on track. There are a lot of survivors depending on it to do a good job.
However, they do not seem to realise that it appears to the outside as a corrupt core.
Now the latest nail in their coffin has come from the Shirley Oaks Survivors Association which says failure to manage the investigation is allowing the abuse to continue. One of the biggest survivors’ groups involved in the independent inquiry into child sexual abuse is to formally withdraw from the investigation, which could start the domino effect for the other groups causing the inquiry to become pointless.
The inquiry while remaining independent now needs a senior figure like a judge to take charge and steer it in the right direction.
Eight members of the legal team have left in the two years that the inquiry has been running and now serious concerns have been raised over the leadership and transparency and as yet they are still to start the actual work of the inquiry.
Presently MPs are saying that this is a really important inquiry into historical child abuse and it has had a very difficult two-year history so far. What we want is for it to get back on track. There are a lot of survivors depending on it to do a good job.
However, they do not seem to realise that it appears to the outside as a corrupt core.
Now the latest nail in their coffin has come from the Shirley Oaks Survivors Association which says failure to manage the investigation is allowing the abuse to continue. One of the biggest survivors’ groups involved in the independent inquiry into child sexual abuse is to formally withdraw from the investigation, which could start the domino effect for the other groups causing the inquiry to become pointless.
The inquiry while remaining independent now needs a senior figure like a judge to take charge and steer it in the right direction.
Tuesday, 15 November 2016
Proportional Representation
I have spoken about this before after the 2015 election:-
http://caldariborderzone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/electoral-reform.html
but I feel it needs to be reiterated as now the first past the post system is not fit for purpose.
Proportional representation is a type of electoral system that decides the make-up of a parliament by allocating seats on the basis of the number of votes each party received. Although there are many different types of PR, this is the base requirement for a system to be described as proportional.
Rather than the winner-take all approach of other systems, PR ensures that votes carry equal weight. To do this, multi-member constituencies are used. This means that a single area elects more than one representative. The size of this area can vary according to the system, ranging from the size of the whole country to a county or local vicinity.
As I said earlier PR is dominant over Europe and the rest of the world and it is about time the UK adopted one form of it.
Months after the election result, a new survey by pollsters BMG has found that 57 per cent of the public agree with the principle that “the number of seats a party gets should broadly reflect its proportion of the total votes cast” – compared to only 9 per cent who disagree.
The scientifically weighted poll found a similarly large majority in favour of changing the current voting system. 51 per cent of the population said they were “unhappy with the current electoral system and want it to change” compared to only 28 per cent who want to keep FPTP.
In 2011 the Government held a referendum on whether to replace the current First Past the Post system with another system called Alternative Vote.
Alternative Vote was not a proportional system, however, and failed to inspire any enthusiasm. The bid was defeated and the existing system retained. It must be pointed out that AV has no similarities with PR what so ever and if a PR referendum was called it would be completely different.
The Wiki will give you a complete description of what PR is:-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proportional_representation
http://caldariborderzone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/electoral-reform.html
but I feel it needs to be reiterated as now the first past the post system is not fit for purpose.
Proportional representation is a type of electoral system that decides the make-up of a parliament by allocating seats on the basis of the number of votes each party received. Although there are many different types of PR, this is the base requirement for a system to be described as proportional.
Rather than the winner-take all approach of other systems, PR ensures that votes carry equal weight. To do this, multi-member constituencies are used. This means that a single area elects more than one representative. The size of this area can vary according to the system, ranging from the size of the whole country to a county or local vicinity.
As I said earlier PR is dominant over Europe and the rest of the world and it is about time the UK adopted one form of it.
Months after the election result, a new survey by pollsters BMG has found that 57 per cent of the public agree with the principle that “the number of seats a party gets should broadly reflect its proportion of the total votes cast” – compared to only 9 per cent who disagree.
The scientifically weighted poll found a similarly large majority in favour of changing the current voting system. 51 per cent of the population said they were “unhappy with the current electoral system and want it to change” compared to only 28 per cent who want to keep FPTP.
In 2011 the Government held a referendum on whether to replace the current First Past the Post system with another system called Alternative Vote.
Alternative Vote was not a proportional system, however, and failed to inspire any enthusiasm. The bid was defeated and the existing system retained. It must be pointed out that AV has no similarities with PR what so ever and if a PR referendum was called it would be completely different.
The Wiki will give you a complete description of what PR is:-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proportional_representation
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