Wednesday, 17 June 2015


Everyone knows about Greece. Even if the low-probability event of an exit from the eurozone and default does take place, so what? Quantitative easing in Europe is in place, and presumably those "in the know" have insured themselves against a Greek exit [or Grexit].

The problem with Greece is not Greece leaving, but rather what kinds of ripple effects that might have in parts of the financial system that no one really is addressing or focusing on. For those who are naturally inclined to be contrarian in macro thinking, the contrarian trade isn't on betting that Greece defaults or not. The contrarian trade is actually on betting that everyone else's dismissal of such an event is the real threat to financial markets.

As the FT has reported that the British government is accelerating preparations for a possible Greek exit from the euro zone, as the Chancellor George Osborne said that Grexit would pose "serious economic risks" to the UK.

A spokeswoman said: "You can expect that we are continuing to make sure we have the right plans in place and stepping up preparations given where discussions have got to," adding that the potential impact on business, banks, the financial sector and tourists was being looked at. The FT reported that among scenarios prepared for were the possibility of British tourists being stranded on Greek islands without money. The report also said that home secretary Theresa May has previously looked into applying an emergency brake on migration from Greece if financial collapse led to a large movement of people.

No comments:

Post a Comment