Last Tuesday the ITV held a 'debate' between the PM Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn.
It was not a debate in the real sense more like two individual interviews glued together. There was an audience with questions, which were longer than the answers, but every time one of the two prepared a response, it was cut short by the host. I am sure the 50 minutes could have been used more prudently to allow each side a chance to get their statements across.
Hosted by news presenter Julie Etchingham, the head-to-head marks the first time since 2015 that both the Labour and Conservative party leaders have taken part in a TV debate. It is telling on how well leaders perform in these kinds of debates, which can make or break their popularity with voters.
Boris Johnson faced dismissive laughs when confronted over whether politicians respected the truth as both party leaders struggled to convince a sceptical audience during the programme. Mr Johnson started off strongly as Jeremy Corbyn was unable to give a convincing answer on his Brexit policy for the first 10 minutes, but both were then hit by moments of disdain as they moved onto issues of the union, anti-semitism and the toxic debate that plagues politics. Jeremy Corbyn was mocked over his Brexit policy by a live television audience after he refused nine times to say whether he thought Britain should leave the EU or remain.
The final audience question was "What Christmas present would you give each other"? Jeremy Corbyn joked he would leave a copy of A Christmas Carol by Charles Dickens under Boris Johnson's tree. Boris Johnson had the audience and ITV Leaders' Debate moderator Julie Etchingham grinning with his response. The Conservative leader said: "I would probably leave a copy of – since he made a literary effort – my brilliant Brexit deal which allows us to come out.
It was too short and interrupted [by the host too much] to say whether one side or the other had come out on top. However, a draw at least allows Jeremy Corbyn to give a sigh of relief as their polls fall ever lower and could be considered a win!
Monday, 25 November 2019
Monday, 18 November 2019
GE 2019 Who is leading?
One of the threats to a Conservative majority is the Brexit party standing in the other seats after saying they would not stand in the 317 seats held by the 2017 conservative. There is a chance that the Brexit party will take seats from the Lib Dems where there is a strong leave base, as the Lib Dems are fully remain.
There are no threats to the Labour majority as it will not happen, not while Jeremy Corbyn is leader, however, just changing the leader is not enough for any party just to sweep the board. The Labour party are not working for a majority they are working specifically to stop the Conservative majority.
In 2015 the Brexit party took one seat from Labour and three seats from the Conservatives. What Nigel Farage would like is to have enough seats to be a bridge between all parties like the DUP are now. This is still unrealistic but there is a real chance that the Brexit party can damage all the others which will create another hung parliament.
One of the crucial statistics currently being shown is that 60% of leavers in Labour seats will vote conservative and 40% of leavers in Labour seats will vote Labour. this if true will be a huge help to the Conservative campaign.
Who is going to grab the 'new' vote? This time round there are those who could not vote in the 2016 referendum or the 2017 election because of age, they have been witnesses to the Brexit scandal, how will their vote affect the overall picture, are they keen enough or are they more interested in the environment and climate change?
More questions than answers but there is plenty of time to get them over the next four weeks, which are going to be very difficult for pollsters to predict.
There are no threats to the Labour majority as it will not happen, not while Jeremy Corbyn is leader, however, just changing the leader is not enough for any party just to sweep the board. The Labour party are not working for a majority they are working specifically to stop the Conservative majority.
In 2015 the Brexit party took one seat from Labour and three seats from the Conservatives. What Nigel Farage would like is to have enough seats to be a bridge between all parties like the DUP are now. This is still unrealistic but there is a real chance that the Brexit party can damage all the others which will create another hung parliament.
One of the crucial statistics currently being shown is that 60% of leavers in Labour seats will vote conservative and 40% of leavers in Labour seats will vote Labour. this if true will be a huge help to the Conservative campaign.
Who is going to grab the 'new' vote? This time round there are those who could not vote in the 2016 referendum or the 2017 election because of age, they have been witnesses to the Brexit scandal, how will their vote affect the overall picture, are they keen enough or are they more interested in the environment and climate change?
More questions than answers but there is plenty of time to get them over the next four weeks, which are going to be very difficult for pollsters to predict.
Monday, 11 November 2019
GE19 - Battle Lines
If there is to be one winner, what needs to be done by the parties to achieve this?
One phrase flying round is "The Red Wall" this is an area across the North West that extends from North Wales all the way across England to Yorkshire. If the Conservatives can win more Labour strongholds here a majority is possible.
One conundrum at present is what effect the Brexit party will be during this election, will they devastate the Labour party or the Conservative party, if the Brexit party does well, there is a good chance that there will be no majority for anyone.
The Lib Dems have their eyes on moderate Conservative seats in the South where the Conservatives are becoming tired with the Brexit mantra. In London, the Lib Dems might have more success without trying because Labour are struggling in the capital, not just because of Brexit.
What can Labour do to gain a majority in GE19?
There are about 40-50 seats that the Conservatives hold that are considered marginal and Labour need to work hard to pull these seats towards themselves. Another example is where Conservatives are standing down this time. The capitol is going to be difficult for Labour this time round. Of course all Labour really need to do is stop the Conservatives getting a majority, and frankly that should be a no brainer.
The Lib Dems have agreed a deal between the Greens and Plaid Cymru covering 60 seats which is 10% of the total, no one knows how this will pan out, however, if the three control these 60 seats it will have a crucial effect on a Conservative/Labour majority position.
One phrase flying round is "The Red Wall" this is an area across the North West that extends from North Wales all the way across England to Yorkshire. If the Conservatives can win more Labour strongholds here a majority is possible.
One conundrum at present is what effect the Brexit party will be during this election, will they devastate the Labour party or the Conservative party, if the Brexit party does well, there is a good chance that there will be no majority for anyone.
The Lib Dems have their eyes on moderate Conservative seats in the South where the Conservatives are becoming tired with the Brexit mantra. In London, the Lib Dems might have more success without trying because Labour are struggling in the capital, not just because of Brexit.
What can Labour do to gain a majority in GE19?
There are about 40-50 seats that the Conservatives hold that are considered marginal and Labour need to work hard to pull these seats towards themselves. Another example is where Conservatives are standing down this time. The capitol is going to be difficult for Labour this time round. Of course all Labour really need to do is stop the Conservatives getting a majority, and frankly that should be a no brainer.
The Lib Dems have agreed a deal between the Greens and Plaid Cymru covering 60 seats which is 10% of the total, no one knows how this will pan out, however, if the three control these 60 seats it will have a crucial effect on a Conservative/Labour majority position.
Thursday, 7 November 2019
GE19 - Plot Twist
If you thought Tom Watson standing down as deputy leader of the Labour party was a shock to the system, this morning Ian Austin a Labour MP and party member for 14 years has made a plea to the general public to vote Conservative!
Ian Austin announced on BBC radio 4 Today program in an emotional statement that he will not contest the Dudley North seat he has held since 2005 over fears that he could take votes off the Conservative candidate and hand victory to Labour.
Ian Austin actually left Labour last February and has held the seat as an independent.
The Labour party has been spoiled by racism, extremism and intolerance under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, the deterioration under Mr Corbyn and its [laughable] stance on Brexit has left them unfit to run the country.
Ian Austin said "The country faces a big choice. There are only two people who can be prime minister on 13 December: Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson and I think Jeremy Corbyn is completely unfit to lead our country, completely unfit to lead the Labour Party."
Ian Austin announced on BBC radio 4 Today program in an emotional statement that he will not contest the Dudley North seat he has held since 2005 over fears that he could take votes off the Conservative candidate and hand victory to Labour.
Ian Austin actually left Labour last February and has held the seat as an independent.
The Labour party has been spoiled by racism, extremism and intolerance under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, the deterioration under Mr Corbyn and its [laughable] stance on Brexit has left them unfit to run the country.
Ian Austin said "The country faces a big choice. There are only two people who can be prime minister on 13 December: Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson and I think Jeremy Corbyn is completely unfit to lead our country, completely unfit to lead the Labour Party."
Monday, 28 October 2019
Can Trump policies finally fail
When he is not raving about how the deep state is conspiring against him, Donald Trump loves to boast about the economy, claiming to have achieved unprecedented things. As it happens, none of his claims are true. While both G.D.P. and employment have registered solid growth, the Trump economy simply seems to have continued a long expansion that began under Barack Obama.
But now it is starting to look as if Trump really will achieve something unique. He may well be the first president of modern times to preside over a slump that can be directly attributed to his own policies, rather than bad luck.
More recently, the [mini-recession] of 2015-16, a slump in manufacturing that may have tipped the scale to Trump, was caused mainly by a plunge in energy prices rather than any one else's policies.
Now the U.S. economy is going through another partial slump. Once again, manufacturing is contracting. Agriculture is also taking a severe hit, as is shipping. Overall output and employment are still growing, but around a fifth of the economy is effectively in recession. But unlike previous presidents, who were just unlucky to preside over slumps, Trump has done this to himself, largely by choosing to wage a trade war he insisted would be 'good, and easy to win'.
The manufacturing slump is more surprising. After all, America runs a large trade deficit in manufactured goods, so you might expect that tariffs, by forcing buyers to turn to domestic suppliers, would be good for the sector. That is surely what Trump and his advisers thought would happen. But that’s not how it has worked out. Instead, the trade war has clearly hurt U.S. manufacturing. Indeed, it has done considerably more damage than even Trump critics like yours truly expected.
For the past few months he has been trying to portray the Federal Reserve as the root of all economic evil, even though current interest rates are well below those his own officials predicted in their triumphalist economic projections. However, the Fed-bashing will prove ineffective as a political strategy, not least because most Americans probably have at best a vague idea of what the Fed is and what it does.
But now it is starting to look as if Trump really will achieve something unique. He may well be the first president of modern times to preside over a slump that can be directly attributed to his own policies, rather than bad luck.
More recently, the [mini-recession] of 2015-16, a slump in manufacturing that may have tipped the scale to Trump, was caused mainly by a plunge in energy prices rather than any one else's policies.
Now the U.S. economy is going through another partial slump. Once again, manufacturing is contracting. Agriculture is also taking a severe hit, as is shipping. Overall output and employment are still growing, but around a fifth of the economy is effectively in recession. But unlike previous presidents, who were just unlucky to preside over slumps, Trump has done this to himself, largely by choosing to wage a trade war he insisted would be 'good, and easy to win'.
The manufacturing slump is more surprising. After all, America runs a large trade deficit in manufactured goods, so you might expect that tariffs, by forcing buyers to turn to domestic suppliers, would be good for the sector. That is surely what Trump and his advisers thought would happen. But that’s not how it has worked out. Instead, the trade war has clearly hurt U.S. manufacturing. Indeed, it has done considerably more damage than even Trump critics like yours truly expected.
For the past few months he has been trying to portray the Federal Reserve as the root of all economic evil, even though current interest rates are well below those his own officials predicted in their triumphalist economic projections. However, the Fed-bashing will prove ineffective as a political strategy, not least because most Americans probably have at best a vague idea of what the Fed is and what it does.
Monday, 21 October 2019
Brexit Deal
Today has been labelled "Meaningful Monday" after "Super Saturday", so what happened?
The idea for Super Saturday was to allow a debate about the new deal that the PM Boris Johnson had put before the EU last week and it had been accepted by them. Parliament would have the chance to scrutinise this and then vote. 'Presumably' if the vote passed we would leave with a deal, and if the vote failed we would leave without a deal.
However, the first sticking block was the Letwin amendment had to be voted on, and this required the PM to ask the EU for an extension no matter whether the vote passed or failed.
It all comes down to numbers and the biggest faction with what could be called a block vote was the DUP, they had 10 MPs and they would all vote the same way. Would it be for or against?
The day started with rumours of a for vote from them after what had been said during the week, comments were seen to be favourable towards the governments position, however, as the day progressed they held a meeting in a side room and then the rumours were that they would abstain. This made calculating the result very difficult for forecasters. In the end they voted against, and the Letwin amendment won by 322 to 306. as a result the PM called off the main vote until Tuesday, which was changed yesterday to Monday [today].
A lot of MPs spoke against the Letwin amendment during the session, but it made little difference.
The idea for Super Saturday was to allow a debate about the new deal that the PM Boris Johnson had put before the EU last week and it had been accepted by them. Parliament would have the chance to scrutinise this and then vote. 'Presumably' if the vote passed we would leave with a deal, and if the vote failed we would leave without a deal.
However, the first sticking block was the Letwin amendment had to be voted on, and this required the PM to ask the EU for an extension no matter whether the vote passed or failed.
It all comes down to numbers and the biggest faction with what could be called a block vote was the DUP, they had 10 MPs and they would all vote the same way. Would it be for or against?
The day started with rumours of a for vote from them after what had been said during the week, comments were seen to be favourable towards the governments position, however, as the day progressed they held a meeting in a side room and then the rumours were that they would abstain. This made calculating the result very difficult for forecasters. In the end they voted against, and the Letwin amendment won by 322 to 306. as a result the PM called off the main vote until Tuesday, which was changed yesterday to Monday [today].
A lot of MPs spoke against the Letwin amendment during the session, but it made little difference.
Monday, 14 October 2019
North West Syria
Last week Turkey launched an aerial and ground assault on northern Syria targeting Kurdish-controlled areas.
The offensive began Wednesday, just days after President Trump ordered U.S. troops to fall back from their positions on the Turkish-Syrian border. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reports dozens of Kurds have been killed so far.
Turkey is claiming the death toll is far higher. The Trump administration has faced widespread criticism from both Republican and Democratic lawmakers for abandoning the stateless Kurds who had helped the U.S. fight ISIS. Turkey is also claiming the assault is needed to establish a “safe zone” in northern Syria where Turkey could relocate Syrian refugees who fled over the past eight years of fighting, but the Kurds [and the rest of the world] see the offensive as part of a decades-long attack
by Turkey to crush their attempts at greater autonomy.
The Kurds have been responsible for holding over 10,000 ISIS fighters and their families in detention. While Trump has claimed Turkey will take control of the makeshift jails, there is growing concern many former ISIS fighters will be able to escape during the Turkish assault. At least one Kurdish prison has already been shelled.
What we saw over the weekend was the long-promised invasion by Turkish President Erdoğan. Many people have said, as there is a consensus all around the world and with public opinion, is the consequences of this will be grave. It is not only that it is essentially threatening a Kurdish genocide, it will create and cause the resurgence of ISIS. It will add to the international refugee crisis.
However, in a shift in alliance, Kurdish forces have announced a deal with Damascus that the Syrian regime will send troops to the area, specifically the border. Now this means Turkey a NATO ally will face Syria which is backed by Russia and Iran.
This is disconcerting.
The offensive began Wednesday, just days after President Trump ordered U.S. troops to fall back from their positions on the Turkish-Syrian border. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reports dozens of Kurds have been killed so far.
Turkey is claiming the death toll is far higher. The Trump administration has faced widespread criticism from both Republican and Democratic lawmakers for abandoning the stateless Kurds who had helped the U.S. fight ISIS. Turkey is also claiming the assault is needed to establish a “safe zone” in northern Syria where Turkey could relocate Syrian refugees who fled over the past eight years of fighting, but the Kurds [and the rest of the world] see the offensive as part of a decades-long attack
by Turkey to crush their attempts at greater autonomy.
The Kurds have been responsible for holding over 10,000 ISIS fighters and their families in detention. While Trump has claimed Turkey will take control of the makeshift jails, there is growing concern many former ISIS fighters will be able to escape during the Turkish assault. At least one Kurdish prison has already been shelled.
What we saw over the weekend was the long-promised invasion by Turkish President Erdoğan. Many people have said, as there is a consensus all around the world and with public opinion, is the consequences of this will be grave. It is not only that it is essentially threatening a Kurdish genocide, it will create and cause the resurgence of ISIS. It will add to the international refugee crisis.
However, in a shift in alliance, Kurdish forces have announced a deal with Damascus that the Syrian regime will send troops to the area, specifically the border. Now this means Turkey a NATO ally will face Syria which is backed by Russia and Iran.
This is disconcerting.
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