It is no good vilifying the train driver if his equipment was not fit for purpose.
In today's technological marvel of a world, are we not surprised that it is possible for a human to override a machine for his/her own purposes? I think not! However, the machine has to have procedures in the first place that can be overridden!
Lot's of speculation has been around since this tragedy last week and only an investigation will answer most of the questions, my only question is "has this driver been along this route before?". The reason for the question would be to ascertain whether his/her knowledge of the route would aid the decision making process. If it turns out that this driver has completed this route dozens of times successfully, then why on this occasion travel at twice the recommended speed?
Francisco Garzón, the driver of the train involved in Spain's worst rail disaster in almost 70 years was freed on bail on Sunday night after reportedly admitting to a judge that he had behaved recklessly.
Is that it then?
Wednesday, 31 July 2013
Tuesday, 30 July 2013
Market surprise
It’s very likely that professional investors are aware of specific research that points toward a massive market correction, as much as 90%.
WOW!
The stock market is still in the midst of its historic rally. Real estate prices have finally levelled off, and for the first time in five years are actually rising in many locations, and the unemployment rate seems to have stabilized.
What makes me think this is happening now?
Warren Buffett, who has been a cheerleader for U.S. stocks for quite some time, is dumping shares at an alarming rate, he has sold 19 million shares of Johnson & Johnson.
John Paulson, who made a fortune betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown, is clearing out of U.S. stocks as well, he has sold 14 million shares of JPMorgan Chase.
Now billionaires don't stay rich by making mistakes...
WOW!
The stock market is still in the midst of its historic rally. Real estate prices have finally levelled off, and for the first time in five years are actually rising in many locations, and the unemployment rate seems to have stabilized.
What makes me think this is happening now?
Warren Buffett, who has been a cheerleader for U.S. stocks for quite some time, is dumping shares at an alarming rate, he has sold 19 million shares of Johnson & Johnson.
John Paulson, who made a fortune betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown, is clearing out of U.S. stocks as well, he has sold 14 million shares of JPMorgan Chase.
Now billionaires don't stay rich by making mistakes...
Monday, 29 July 2013
Egypt bitterly divided
How did the Muslim Brotherhood under Mohamed Morsi get elected 12 months ago by a majority of the populace considering what is happening today?
Egyptians remained deeply divided over the future of their country Sunday, with no sign of an end to clashes between rivals groups that left at least 72 dead last Saturday. However, this does seem to the west to be one-sided, as the only people being injured appear to be supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood said they would not leave the streets despite what they called "massacres" by security forces that shot dozens of them dead.
The west has asked for a full public enquiry, the Egyptian military have waved the suggestion aside.
What I still do not understand is, if over half the 80 million people in Egypt voted for the Muslim Brotherhood twelve months ago, [in elections that at the time were said to be trouble free, independent, democratic and free of corruption] where are they now?
Egyptians remained deeply divided over the future of their country Sunday, with no sign of an end to clashes between rivals groups that left at least 72 dead last Saturday. However, this does seem to the west to be one-sided, as the only people being injured appear to be supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood said they would not leave the streets despite what they called "massacres" by security forces that shot dozens of them dead.
The west has asked for a full public enquiry, the Egyptian military have waved the suggestion aside.
What I still do not understand is, if over half the 80 million people in Egypt voted for the Muslim Brotherhood twelve months ago, [in elections that at the time were said to be trouble free, independent, democratic and free of corruption] where are they now?
Friday, 26 July 2013
British growth party
The ONS [Office of National Statistics] has announced that the British economy grew by 0.6 per cent in the last quarter, sparking suggestions that the economy may be coming out of its slump. It compares favourably to the mini-slump the country was in this time last year, and is the third best quarter Britain has seen since the recession.
Should we running down the street with our pants on our head revelling in the good news? I think not.
The failure to bring the economy back to where it was pre-recession lies almost entirely on the back of the Government. A recent study estimating the effects of austerity on growth found that GDP [Gross Domestic Product] was 3 per cent lower than it would have been if the Chancellor hadn't attempted to slash the state. That difference works out to £3,500 for every household in the country.
However, is that right. It appears to be a very small view on what has been happening over the past five years since the global economic crisis, and remember this is global, but the figures refer to the British position. Are we yet again confusing one situation with another by blurring the details of local and global?
I believe GDP is too small a sample of financial data to predict an uncertain future and there should be more tracking of median household economic data to build a fuller picture.
Should we running down the street with our pants on our head revelling in the good news? I think not.
The failure to bring the economy back to where it was pre-recession lies almost entirely on the back of the Government. A recent study estimating the effects of austerity on growth found that GDP [Gross Domestic Product] was 3 per cent lower than it would have been if the Chancellor hadn't attempted to slash the state. That difference works out to £3,500 for every household in the country.
However, is that right. It appears to be a very small view on what has been happening over the past five years since the global economic crisis, and remember this is global, but the figures refer to the British position. Are we yet again confusing one situation with another by blurring the details of local and global?
I believe GDP is too small a sample of financial data to predict an uncertain future and there should be more tracking of median household economic data to build a fuller picture.
Thursday, 25 July 2013
The work programme
The government's work programme doesn't look well administered as an under spend is not always good news.
Tony Wilson, policy director at the Centre for Economic and Social Inclusion, reports that the Work Programme, the controversial government scheme which pays outsourcing firms to get long-term unemployed people back in work, has come in £225m under budget. The Youth Contract, a related programme which focuses on young unemployed people, came in £300m under budget.
That sounds good, and likely will be spun as good by the government, when the time comes to release the figures, but it's actually yet more evidence of the mismanagement of the entire scheme. The Guardian reports on the public accounts committee's analysis of the programmes:
/quote
The report said that providers complained they "did not have the funding to provide the level of support they wanted". It added: "Particular issues reported as resulting from a lack of funding included an inability to pay for interpreters and for participant transport in rural areas. Some subcontractors felt this also had an impact on their ability to meet the needs of particular groups of participants."
Another provider said that due to the high numbers of unemployed people needing help too often "support was provided online or in group sessions, with one-to-one support used only where necessary".
/endQuote
When a programme is being condemned for a lack of funding at the same time as not even spending the budget it's been given, it's hard to imagine it's being particularly well administered. Of course, given that against the best counterfactuals, it looks like the work programme is less effective than doing nothing at all, that shouldn't be a huge surprise.
Tony Wilson, policy director at the Centre for Economic and Social Inclusion, reports that the Work Programme, the controversial government scheme which pays outsourcing firms to get long-term unemployed people back in work, has come in £225m under budget. The Youth Contract, a related programme which focuses on young unemployed people, came in £300m under budget.
That sounds good, and likely will be spun as good by the government, when the time comes to release the figures, but it's actually yet more evidence of the mismanagement of the entire scheme. The Guardian reports on the public accounts committee's analysis of the programmes:
/quote
The report said that providers complained they "did not have the funding to provide the level of support they wanted". It added: "Particular issues reported as resulting from a lack of funding included an inability to pay for interpreters and for participant transport in rural areas. Some subcontractors felt this also had an impact on their ability to meet the needs of particular groups of participants."
Another provider said that due to the high numbers of unemployed people needing help too often "support was provided online or in group sessions, with one-to-one support used only where necessary".
/endQuote
When a programme is being condemned for a lack of funding at the same time as not even spending the budget it's been given, it's hard to imagine it's being particularly well administered. Of course, given that against the best counterfactuals, it looks like the work programme is less effective than doing nothing at all, that shouldn't be a huge surprise.
Wednesday, 24 July 2013
Has China's bubble burst?
All economic data are best viewed as a peculiarly boring genre of science fiction, but Chinese data are even more fictional than most. Add a secretive government, a controlled press, and the sheer size of the country, and it’s harder to figure out what’s really happening in China than it is in any other major economy.
Yet the signs are now unmistakable: China is in big trouble...
It’s all very peculiar by our standards, but it worked for several decades. Now, however, China has hit the “Lewis point”, to put it crudely, it’s running out of surplus peasants.
That should be a good thing. Wages are rising; finally, ordinary Chinese are starting to share in the fruits of growth. But it also means that the Chinese economy is suddenly faced with the need for drastic “rebalancing”, the jargon phrase of the moment. Investment is now running into sharply diminishing returns and is going to drop drastically no matter what the government does; consumer spending must rise dramatically to take its place. The question is whether this can happen fast enough to avoid a nasty slump.
And the answer, increasingly, seems to be no. The need for rebalancing has been obvious for years, but China just kept putting off the necessary changes, instead boosting the economy by keeping the currency undervalued and flooding it with cheap credit. [Since someone is going to raise this issue: no, this bears very little resemblance to the Federal Reserve’s policies here.] These measures postponed the day of reckoning, but also ensured that this day would be even harder when it finally came. And now it has arrived.
Yet the signs are now unmistakable: China is in big trouble...
It’s all very peculiar by our standards, but it worked for several decades. Now, however, China has hit the “Lewis point”, to put it crudely, it’s running out of surplus peasants.
That should be a good thing. Wages are rising; finally, ordinary Chinese are starting to share in the fruits of growth. But it also means that the Chinese economy is suddenly faced with the need for drastic “rebalancing”, the jargon phrase of the moment. Investment is now running into sharply diminishing returns and is going to drop drastically no matter what the government does; consumer spending must rise dramatically to take its place. The question is whether this can happen fast enough to avoid a nasty slump.
And the answer, increasingly, seems to be no. The need for rebalancing has been obvious for years, but China just kept putting off the necessary changes, instead boosting the economy by keeping the currency undervalued and flooding it with cheap credit. [Since someone is going to raise this issue: no, this bears very little resemblance to the Federal Reserve’s policies here.] These measures postponed the day of reckoning, but also ensured that this day would be even harder when it finally came. And now it has arrived.
Tuesday, 23 July 2013
America goes back half a century
On the day George Zimmerman was acquitted for the murder of Trayvon Martin, young black men of all classes, professions and character were forcefully disabused of the luxury of denial. They were reminded, once again, that it doesn’t matter if they walk fast or slow, fight back or run, if they are guilty of a crime or not, in the eyes of the law they can be shot down in the street and no one will be held accountable.
Don’t underestimate the strength of this desire to believe that the world is just. It is so strong it cannot coexist with the blatant evidence of injustice presented by Zimmerman’s acquittal. The reality, which is there for all to see, must be somehow deflected, mitigated or denied. And the starker the example of injustice, the stronger is this desire to deny it.
Of course it is rather difficult for me to throw stones without hitting some British glass!
The attempt to smear black victims of crime is not unfamiliar. There is evidence to suggest it happened in the cases of black British men including Stephen Lawrence. These cases differ in many specifics, after all these men were all different people with different lifestyles and back stories and characters. It is not the families’ campaigns for justice which seek to erode the distinctions. It is a legal system which believes that all black men are criminals and that the killing of a black criminal is always justifiable.
No matter which way you look at this situation, it is not good...
Don’t underestimate the strength of this desire to believe that the world is just. It is so strong it cannot coexist with the blatant evidence of injustice presented by Zimmerman’s acquittal. The reality, which is there for all to see, must be somehow deflected, mitigated or denied. And the starker the example of injustice, the stronger is this desire to deny it.
Of course it is rather difficult for me to throw stones without hitting some British glass!
The attempt to smear black victims of crime is not unfamiliar. There is evidence to suggest it happened in the cases of black British men including Stephen Lawrence. These cases differ in many specifics, after all these men were all different people with different lifestyles and back stories and characters. It is not the families’ campaigns for justice which seek to erode the distinctions. It is a legal system which believes that all black men are criminals and that the killing of a black criminal is always justifiable.
No matter which way you look at this situation, it is not good...
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