Monday, 7 September 2015

Hinckley Point

Hinckley Point C is the latest in nuclear power stations and will fill a desperately need gap in energy to "stop the lights going out" when the coal fired stations are taken off-line.

However, EDF the French owned conglomerate has announced the opening will be delayed due to financial issues.

The latest delay raises the prospect that Hinckley may now in fact be overtaken by other proposed British nuclear power projects with far quicker build times. The safety of the Flamanville plant has been questioned due to the danger of flooding of the kind experienced during the 1999 Blayais Nuclear Power Plant flood.

We all know Britain has an energy problem even if we cannot all agree on what, specifically, the problem is. Rising costs, changing climate, peak oil, foreign oil, public safety the issues are complicated, the solutions even more so.

Each individual power source like  coal, nuclear, solar or wind is not sustainable by itself. But some combination of various systems, various compromises and improvements and treaties between mutual belligerents, taken together, hold out the promise of a world where we and our descendants continue to enjoy comfort and prosperity.

The government has made it clear that a range of methods is the best solution, however, when one of them goes down what answer do they have in place?

Friday, 4 September 2015

A week to go

Yvette Cooper’s strong line on Syria has impressed many Labour members and a VERY strong and passionate attack on Corbyn at the end of the Sky News live debate. But is it too late to affect her hopes of clinching the leadership?

Andy Burnham is also confident he can snatch victory. Burnham is interviewed by Andy Grice in the Independent and his camp claims one in five Labour members and supporters previously committed to Jeremy Corbyn is now undecided. He still seems to be flip flopping on his views weekly and it might be time for the voters to realise this.

Jeremy Corbyn is still flying the flag [the red flag] and odds on favourite with Chuka Umunna’s backing now that he is not running with a line that everyone should stick together. That is going to be a bit tricky if Corbyn wins. During the debate he got the most support, is that because everyone went there to support him or is he still getting his message across?

Liz Kendall is staying mum at the moment, although to be fair she is saying the same message today as she said two months ago. Perhaps that is the stability that the Labour party could do with.

Saturday 12th and we will know.

Thursday, 3 September 2015

Body on the beach

The Independent newspaper has published a picture of a dead baby on a beach in Turkey which is connected to the migrant/refugee story.

It is a shocking picture [it is supposed to be] and it has got everyone talking about the current migrant/refugee situation, so the debate has begun.

It could have started last week when Germany said they would take 800,000 and Britain said nothing, but it didn't. It could have started the week before when 800 died in the Mediterranean after their ship sank, but it didn't.

It has started now after a picture of a little Kurdish boy face down in the surf is on the front pages of the press.

Why did it take so long?

Wednesday, 2 September 2015

China's bad month

Since 1978, China has engaged in an unprecedented and wildly successful experiment, moving gradually from a command economy to one based on markets; in small steps transforming a system where administrators controlled the goods that were produced to one where prices allocate resources.

The day has come for China to become more closely integrated into the global financial system, and this has a number of implications. The most important is that as prices and quantities of financial assets [rather than goods] are determined in markets, bureaucrats lose a great deal of control. But, as recent events clearly demonstrate, Chinese authorities are reluctant to let go.

Capital controls make it possible for China to maintain a fixed exchange rate while policymakers could adjust interest rates to stabilise their domestic economy. These same capital controls are incompatible with the objectives of making Shanghai a global financial centre. The devaluation of the yuan earlier this month by the People’s Bank of China’s [PBOC] has not allowed any form of stabilisation as the downward spiral continues.

Fewer people are willing to work the long hours for the low wages offered by manufacturing and more people are moving towards the cities for work. Policymakers in China look to be quite unhappy about the constraints this is creating. The government needs to alleviate the pressure to save on its working population.

All eyes are on what the authorities will do to next.

Tuesday, 1 September 2015

Ashley Madison

The recent leak at Ashley Madison, an online dating service of extra-marital affairs, did more than embarrass a few politicians and celebrities [all male].

It also revealed that the whole site was a huge scam.

For over 20 million men who checked their Ashley Madison messages there were only 1,492 women who did the same.

Apparently the leak also showed that many of the female profiles were simply fake. At least in this case the old meme that there are no girls on the internet proved to be quite true.

Sunday, 30 August 2015

Financial Terms

Excess Liquidity.

Definition:
Cash held by a bank above the usual requirement for that bank.

How did a bank get this much cash? Two reasons.

1) Basel III [or the Third Basel Accord] dictated that banks in the future should keep more stocks of cash to alleviate the issue of not being able to cover all deposits.

2) Quantitative Easing governed by monetary policy has produced so much cash the banks do not know what to do with it.

Why should we be worried about this? Deflation.

If inflation was our current problem then raising interest rates, having cash in the bank would be a good thing, but deflation is top of the pops at the moment and the central banks do not seem to have an instrument to work for them against this trend.

One enduring constant of the world economy since 2008 is the chorus of sober-sounding people declaring that central banks must act responsibly and raise rates. A few years back, rising commodity prices and a flood of money into emerging markets were proof that low rates were dangerously inflationary and must be hiked. Well we are still waiting for this inflation to hit us and it seems a long time coming.

Now we have plunging commodity prices and a flood of money out of emerging markets; clearly, this shows that central banks must do the right thing, and raise rates. But as we have already said, this is not currently possible, so what next?

Friday, 28 August 2015

Gun control in America

Gun legislation in the United States is constrained by judicial interpretations of the Constitution. In 1789, the United States adopted the Second Amendment, and in 1868 adopted the Fourteenth Amendment. The effect of those two amendments on gun politics was the subject of landmark U.S. Supreme Court decisions in 2008 and 2010, that upheld the right for individuals to possess guns for self-defence [Wiki].

The public policy debates about gun violence include discussions about firearms deaths. Within the gun politics debate, gun control and gun rights advocates disagree over the role that guns play in crime.

Gun control advocates concerned about high levels of gun violence in the United States look to restrictions on gun ownership as a way to stem the violence and say that increased gun ownership leads to higher levels of crime, suicide and other negative outcomes.

Gun rights groups say that a well-armed citizenry prevents crime and that making civilian ownership of firearms illegal would increase the crime rate by making law-abiding citizens vulnerable to those who choose to disregard the law. They say that more people defend themselves with a gun every year than the police arrest for violent crimes and burglary  and that private citizens legally shoot almost as many criminals as public police officers do.

On 16th January, 2013, in response to the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting and other mass shootings, President Barack Obama announced a plan for reducing gun violence in four parts:

closing background check loopholes
banning assault weapons and large capacity magazines
making schools safer
and increasing access to mental health services

The plan included proposals for new laws to be passed by Congress, and a series of executive actions not requiring Congressional approval. No new federal gun control legislation was passed as a result of these proposals. President Obama later stated in a 2015 interview with the BBC that gun control:

“I feel that I've been most frustrated and most stymied it is the fact that the United States of America is the one advanced nation on earth in which we do not have sufficient common-sense, gun-safety laws. Even in the face of repeated mass killings.”

Americans will never give up their guns.