Thursday, 30 June 2016

Brexit Post Mortem

The FTSE100 is down less than almost any other market, it is dominated by large multinationals that benefit from the lower pound, looking at the FTSE250 which focuses on domestic British companies we see a drop of around 10%.

The German and French markets are down by about 8%, they represent the heart of the eurozone. The 8% declines in Germany and France represent fallout damage and the UK is not directly impacted by this.

China actually went up, but they tend to follow their own rules, don't go there.

The FTSE250 did especially poorly on Monday [compared to other markets], which fits the political chaos theory, as the media portrayed the British government as being clueless about how to handle the situation. Things were a bit better on Tuesday and considerably better on Wednesday as the shorters were finished with their business.

What must be realised is this little six day [four business days] break has been a god send to shorters who saw it coming. The Smart Money sold their stock on Thursday during the vote [at it's peak] saw it plummet and then bought it back. They all have the same stock holding they had before but have made a cash bonus from the buy/sell exchange.

This general market pattern was somewhat predictable, prior to the Brexit vote, we’d seen markets rise on optimism that “Remain” would win, and so it was possible to clearly see how investors thought a Brexit vote would affect various markets. Of course hedgers would be betting against this and for a leave win, while they contemplate this scenario they would realise that it is the perfect time for a short session. This is why they are called the Smart Money.

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